The Browns (+280) also delivered a huge upset over the Ravens in week 4, while Detroit (+307) very nearly staged a huge upset over the Chiefs that same week. Houston nearly pulled off a huge upset in week 1 at +280, while the Buccaneers (+240) actually did take down the Panthers in week 2. There have been some big ones, though, as well as some really close calls. There haven’t been many earth-shaking NFL upsets this year. Looking back at the first nine weeks, an underdog winner of that magnitude has happened a grand total of two times. You can just reverse the numbers to see how underdogs have fared in 2019, but what I’m interested in is just how often those monster NFL upsets go down. It’s never going to be as simple as “boy, this team is tough to bet against,” but it’s certainly worth noting. On the flip-side, I bet everyone wants to know which underdogs they can trust for the rest of the year. It’s fun to poke holes in some of the best teams in the NFL, but it’s hard to live up to the expectations of being the favorite. The skinny? Favorites are solid bets to win, but they’re not all that reliable when asked to cover the spread. Green Bay (4-3), San Francisco (2-3), and Seattle (2-5) have been a little suspect at covering when favored as well. Trendy favorites that haven’t been so trustworthy include the Falcons (0-2) and Lions (0-2). The Patriots (6-3), Rams (5-2), and Panthers (3-1) have all been fantastic at responding ATS as favorites. If you just want to know which team has covered the best as a favorite, look no further than the Raiders (1-0), who are the only undefeated team ATS when favored so far in 2019. 500 or far worse mark.įrom a team perspective, it’s been profitable to back the Saints and Rams, both of which tie for the league lead with a 6-2 ATS record. Every other week, the favorites posted a. That said, favorites covered the spread as a whole in just two of nine weeks.
Context is everything when you consider where the favorites are playing, what injuries they’re working through, and precisely what the actual spread is. And if you’re on the fence, perhaps consider going the opposite direction than the majority of bettors are.įavorites usually win when you pan out, but a closer look suggests they don’t always do so convincingly. Instead, assessing betting value on your own makes more sense. Overall, joining the public is not a consistently profitable venture. Three weeks of 10+ losses is going to be hard to forget, too.
#FADE IN BETTING FULL#
I’m fine with being average when it comes to something as volatile as pro football, but that 3-12 showing in week 4 has to put you on full tilt.
Outside of the gem that week 3 was, the public has been either fairly pedestrian or downright horrific at helping you pick games. So, fade the public? Uh, yeah, I guess so. It’s just half the year, but that isn’t great. It’s had some strong weeks, but it’s had you go. Not that you should use any one piece of data or narrative to sway your betting choices, but fading the public exclusively hasn’t been a lucrative NFL betting strategy in 2019. Should you change up your NFL betting strategy by considering how fading the public has gone in 2019 so far? So, with nine weeks officially in the books and the mid-way part of the year behind us, I thought I’d dive in and see what’s been working and what’s been driving bettors crazy. What about the old adage of “fading the public”? There is certainly merit to that, just like there is value in paying attention to matchups, researching past results, keeping tabs on against the spread data - the list goes on.īut I was wondering if all the noise was actually helping anyone find success when betting on the NFL in 2019. Even when you do, good luck stringing more than two of those successful bets together.īetting only on NFL upset picks? That tends to be a lot more difficult than you’d think, too. The major reason why NFL betting isn’t so easy is that betting on moneylines doesn’t get you very far.įor the handful of games once a week for 17 weeks that are actually worth betting on, it’s often difficult to pick the right side. Betting on football is a lot harder than people make it out to be.
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